By Steve Janoski
As Hurricane Sandy rages up the Atlantic seaboard in what looks like yet another October surprise for North Jersey, the promise of heavy rains, high winds, and the possibility of heavy flooding has local officials activating their emergency management offices, ramping up their preparations, and bracing for the worst.
The great fear, Pequannock Township Manager Dave Hollberg said on Thursday afternoon, is that a separate west-bound storm will collide with the hurricane as it arrives, drawing it into the continent and feeding off its energy to create a massive low-pressure system that would rival 1991's now-infamous "Perfect Storm."
That gale, which led to the 1997 Sebastian Junger book (and later movie) of the same name, occurred when a nor'easter absorbed Hurricane Grace to create a wildly violent disturbance over the North Atlantic that led to waves of unprecedented heights and later evolved into another, smaller hurricane.
But that storm, which was never officially named, didn't make landfall until it was significantly weakened. And for flood-prone towns like Pequannock and Pompton Lakes, exactly where Sandy arrives will play a direct role in how much the waters of the Pompton and Pequannock rivers rise.
"Our biggest concern is that... those two storms could potentially come together and become basically a nor'easter that taps into a large amount of tropical moisture and produces copious amounts of rain over a very short period of time," Hollberg said.
With many residents of low-lying areas still reeling from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Irene in August 2011, further flooding of that magnitude could be ruinous.
However, as of Friday afternoon, it was still too early to determine the storm's course, said David A. Robinson, the state climatologist and professor at Rutgers University. This is because a 50- or 100-mile shift in where the eye comes ashore could mean the difference between 3 inches of rain and 10 for the Passaic River Basin.
The situation looked better on Friday than it did on Thursday, he said - instead of making landfall near Asbury Park as previously predicted, Friday's models said that it was more likely to hit the Delmarva Peninsula, sparing North Jersey the brunt of the precipitation.
This, said Pequannock Mayor Rich Phelan, will make a tremendous difference, especially considering that the reservoirs, which are about three-quarters full, can contain 4 to 5 inches of rainfall, but will be swamped if the totals careen higher.
"If we get 3 or 4 inches...we'll be OK," he said Friday. "But if we get 10, that will be catastrophic."
And don't be fooled by the "Frankenstorm" sobriquet, Robinson said. This is very much a hurricane, and regardless of where it lands it will be a "significant event" that is coming for an extended stay. A high-pressure system sitting to the northeast combined with the other westbound storm will leave Sandy with no immediate outlet.
"It's very unusual," he said. "It's going to be a prolonged period of rain, very strong rains, and you'll have strong winds affecting the Passaic River Basin, which could result in stream flooding and tree damage...no one should let their guard down."
Robinson expects the first inklings of the storm to be felt on Sunday before it ramps up on Monday. The bulk of the hurricane is likely to arrive Tuesday.
Officials are urging residents to sign up now for email blasts through Pequannock's website (peqtwp.org), pay attention to local weather forecasts, and listen to the town-run radio station, AM 1620, for updates as the weather intensifies.
Hollberg also said that a letter has been sent off to Governor Christie urgently requesting that the reservoirs be drawn down (as they were prior to Irene), and that the gates of the Pompton Lakes Dam be "gradually opened" and remain open throughout the event.
Pompton Lakes officials have echoed the request, and at an Oct. 25 meeting of the Pompton Lakes Flood Advisory Board, Pompton Lakes Mayor Katie Cole told worried residents of the South End that she had called the Governor's Office to ask that the gates be opened and that an engineer from the state Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) be present to monitor operations.
She spoke about how she believes that the status of the local reservoirs, especially those that drain into the Ramapo River, will determine how badly the community floods, and urged residents to read the blue flood manual in the borough calendar and sign up for the reverse 911 system by calling the borough clerk (973-835-0143) or registering online.
In Pequannock, Phelan said that town workers have already put barricades out near oft-flooded roads, and electronic trailers are sitting on the highway, ready to be activated the second Route 23 begins to take on water. With the town facing what could be the sixth major flood in three years, the township has "gotten this down to a science."
Should the power go out, plans are in place to conduct manual door-to-door notifications if evacuations become necessary.
"It's sad that we're getting really good at this, but we've got a great town, and I know our residents will rise to the challenge," said the mayor.
But they also need to be ready to leave. Just in case.
To contact the governor's office to ask that the Pompton Lake Dam be opened, call 609-292-6000. To contact the DEP to request an engineer be in Pompton Lakes to monitor the flood gates, call the DEP Dam Safety Department at 609-984-9859.
Staff writer Leslie Scott contributed to this story
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