By Steve Janoski - Manny Pacquiao is not invincible, and will be beaten on Nov. 14. There, I said it.
I have been accused of “hating” Pac for my views, which is laughable because I’ve never met him. He is simply another sportsmen to me, a very good fighter in an era filled with them. His place in the history of boxing is neither assured nor agreed upon at present; how History judges him will undoubtedly be a result of the next five or so years..
There are, of course, certain things that the attentive observer cannot deny about Pac. He’s got a terrific left hand, and he has developed, under the guidance of trainer Freddie Roach, into a complete fighter that uses all the weapons at his disposal effectively. He has been outsized in a number of his fights in the past two years, and has come up on the winning end against fighters far more accustomed to the heavier classes. But does that mean that he can really move up to welterweight, and expect to win this Saturday?
The answer, in short, is no. Though very evenly matched, Pacquiao lost both fights to Marquez. He defeated David Diaz (who?), and then beat De La Hoya’s trembling ghost into submission. He also beat Ricky Hatton, and because I am not one that subscribes to the “Hatton is a club fighter” theory, Pac gets credit for this- he beat a very good fighter by dismantling him with hand speed and power. Fair enough.
Since that May night, the message boards have been alight with praise of Pacquiao. With the accolades heaped upon him, one might think that the little Filipino could kill Sampson if only given the chance, or slay a Klitschko or two if he had the opportunity (maybe both at the same time). His singing career, his movie, his profile in general, has risen off the charts, and rightly so. He’s worked hard, and deserves the fruits.
But there are holes in this story, and the hero is not actually invincible. Upon a closer look at his lightweight fight, Diaz, bleeding and shocked in the ninth round, was still landing flush shots on Pacquiao’s face. They didn’t do much because it was David Diaz throwing them… but what will happen when it’s Miguel Cotto who’s throwing them?
And since the Diaz fight, Pac has barely been hit by a punch. De La Hoya looked as if he’d stopped breathing sometime in late November but someone put him in the ring anyway, and Hatton barely landed a shot before being viciously Anquan Boldin‘d by Pacquiao’s fist.
This means that Pacquiao’s chin (and, more importantly, his liver) remain untested against a hard hitting welterweight. While Cotto is not the one-punch knockout type, he certainly has power- enough power that when he hits Pacquiao, he’s going to know that he got hit. What does this mean for a guy who twice got knocked out at 112 lbs.?
If the Puerto Rican lands that straight right on the chin in the eighth or ninth round, will Pacquiao be able to stand and trade? Will he be so quick to come in on a guy who has stood with, and defeated, the likes of Sugar Shane Mosely, Joshua Clottey, Ricardo Torres, and Zab Judah? The man who took 11 rounds of a beating from Margarito. That left hand will not likely be so potent against one who has stood in against bigger sluggers for the last three years, and has seen all those fighters had to offer.
On top of that, there are distractions galore. There is blatant discord in the Pacquiao camp as evidenced by HBO’s 24/7’s, as Roach seems to be going toe to toe with Pacquiao’s leaching, Rasputin-like “advisor” Michael Koncz. Koncz, who seems to ooze the kind of vile that you see only in the villains in Disney cartoons, looks like the sort that can drive a man’s career into the ground with the weight of his silver tongue. Who else would have Pacquiao spar with Jose Luis Castillo, who won his last fight in 1932? Not Roach, to be sure.
The flood-addled training in the Philippines, the meetings with politicians, the celebrity status…these things take away a boxer’s focus, and training when one’s mind is wandering is not the road to victory. Maybe Pacquiao doesn’t have problems concentrating… but it would certainly make him different than the rest of us.
Meanwhile, waiting in the wings with heavy, serious eyes, is Cotto, training, training, and training. He has ferocity carved in his face, with the drawn look of a man who knows that his time is now or never. He is not a brash young fighter with little experience, and he is not a worn-out, drained-down old man. He is, at 29, in the prime of his career, at that peaking point when a fighter has been through enough wars that he is always comfortable in the ring, but young enough that those wars have not yet caught up with him. With his jab, his straight right, and his left hook to the ribcage, he seeks to end Pacquiao’s seven-title dream run, his Cinderella story that has gone on just a little too long.
Don’t be surprised if, on the night of Nov. 14, Cotto ends this story, and shows Pacquiao that not all fairy tales have happy endings.
Article posted on 10.11.2009
http://www.eastsideboxing.com/news.php?p=21838&more=1
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